Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 21.154957 25.396945 30.053178 35.515323 41.718195 48.514341 56.493669
2025-09-28 13.906899 19.182981 25.581009 33.787725 43.904379 55.834886 70.825699
2025-10-05 10.955234 16.829059 24.506983 35.008695 48.707734 65.671370 87.935331
2025-10-12 8.858241 14.978045 23.517187 35.843488 52.678932 74.347130 103.758871
2025-10-19 7.277661 13.460280 22.617720 36.482761 56.185388 82.382836 118.946385
2025-10-26 6.141487 12.350714 22.063270 37.405673 59.970338 90.816059 134.883168
2025-11-02 4.952323 10.892651 20.731251 36.959247 61.658944 96.352240 147.045595
2025-11-09 4.125704 9.876918 19.920008 37.143567 64.164293 103.023033 160.910346
2025-11-16 3.376434 8.832683 18.891477 36.826525 65.810075 108.450204 173.151140
2025-11-23 2.670981 7.701692 17.531332 35.785272 66.193912 111.969217 182.715339
2025-11-30 2.333720 7.273800 17.375431 36.726179 69.705002 120.200151 199.299033
2025-12-07 1.872444 6.439912 16.320176 35.971179 70.381813 124.131702 209.659445
2025-12-14 1.597876 6.020787 16.088107 36.786828 73.895712 132.861929 227.949129
2025-12-21 1.168935 5.047847 14.553793 35.036026 72.974505 134.687216 236.014731
2025-12-28 1.019860 4.822731 14.598438 36.293379 77.297985 144.959836 257.275786
2026-01-04 0.869850 4.538319 14.456780 37.151894 80.940337 154.248864 277.279875
2026-01-11 0.733221 4.242432 14.234104 37.809172 84.232934 163.063363 296.781190
2026-01-18 0.629956 4.023213 14.160713 38.757945 88.091014 172.926485 318.196220
2026-01-25 0.492332 3.594541 13.467312 38.299028 89.273663 178.333073 332.642290
2026-02-01 0.400313 3.306704 13.092527 38.488510 91.671852 185.850335 350.658342
2026-02-08 0.311901 2.973732 12.520803 38.162587 93.030701 191.603633 365.933363
2026-02-15 0.226467 2.579036 11.674165 37.092042 92.832302 194.611895 376.751654
2026-02-22 0.193321 2.468457 11.682377 38.059425 96.757514 204.973903 399.983800